Healthcare utilisation in people with long COVID: an OpenSAFELY cohort study (preprint)

BackgroundLong COVID, characterised by various symptoms and complications, potentially increases healthcare utilisation and costs. However, its impact on the NHS remains to be determined. ObjectiveThis study aims to assess the healthcare utilisation of individuals with long COVID. MethodsWith the approval of NHS England, we conducted a matched cohort study using primary and secondary care data via OpenSAFELY, a platform for analysing anonymous electronic health records. The long COVID exposure group, defined by diagnostic codes, was matched with five comparators without long COVID between Nov 2020 and Jan 2023. We compared their total healthcare utilisation from GP consultations, prescriptions, hospital admissions, A&E visits, and outpatient appointments. Healthcare utilisation and costs were evaluated using a two-part model adjusting for covariates. Using a difference-in-difference model, we also compared healthcare utilisation after long COVID with pre-pandemic records. ResultsWe identified 52,988 individuals with a long COVID diagnosis, matched to 264,867 comparators without a diagnosis. In the 12 months post-diagnosis, there was strong evidence that those with long COVID were more likely to use healthcare resources (OR: 8.07, 95% CI: 7.54 - 8.64), and have 49% more healthcare utilisation (RR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.47 - 1.50). Our model estimated that the long COVID group had 30 healthcare visits per year (predicted mean: 29.23, 95% CI: 28.58 - 29.92), compared to 16 in the comparator group (predicted mean visits: 16.04, 95% CI: 15.73 - 16.36). Individuals with long COVID were more likely to have non-zero healthcare expenditures (OR = 7.47, 95% CI = 7.02 - 7.95), with costs being 43% higher than the comparator group (cost ratio = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.38 - 1.49). The long COVID group costs approximately {pound}2,500 per person per year (predicted mean cost: {pound}2,562.50, 95% CI: {pound}2,335.60 - {pound}2,819.22), and the comparator group costs {pound}1,500 (predicted mean cost: {pound}1,527.43, 95% CI: {pound}1,404.33 - 1,664.45.) Historically, individuals with long COVID utilised healthcare resources more frequently, but their average healthcare utilisation increased more after being diagnosed with long COVID, compared to the comparator group. ConclusionLong COVID increases healthcare utilisation and costs. Public health policies should allocate more resources towards preventing, treating, and supporting individuals with long COVID.

Clinical coding of long COVID in primary care 2020-2023 in a cohort of 19 million adults: an OpenSAFELY analysis (preprint)

Background Long COVID is the patient-coined term for the persistent symptoms of COVID-19 illness for weeks, months or years following the acute infection. There is a large burden of long COVID globally from self-reported data, but the epidemiology, causes and treatments remain poorly understood. Primary care is used to help identify and treat patients with long COVID and therefore Electronic Health Records (EHRs) of past COVID-19 patients could be used to help fill these knowledge gaps. We aimed to describe those with long COVID in primary care records in England. Methods With the approval of NHS England we used routine clinical data from over 19 million adults in England linked to SARS-COV-2 test result, hospitalisation and vaccination data to describe trends in the recording of 16 clinical codes related to long COVID between November 2020 and January 2023. We calculated rates per 100,000 person-years and plotted how these changed over time. We compared crude and minimally adjusted rates of recorded long COVID in patient records between different key demographic and vaccination characteristics using negative binomial models. Findings We identified a total of 55,465 people recorded to have long COVID over the study period, with incidence of new long COVID records increasing steadily over 2021, and declining over 2022. The overall rate per 100,000 person-years was 177.5 cases in women (95% CI: 175.5-179) and 100.5 men (99.5-102). In terms of vaccination against COVID-19, the lowest rates were observed in those with 3+ vaccine doses (103.5 [95% CI: 101.5-105]). Finally, the majority of those with a long COVID record did not have a recorded positive SARS-COV-2 test 12 weeks before the long COVID record. Interpretation EHR recorded long COVID remains very low compared and incident records of long COVID declined over 2022. We found the lowest rates of recorded long COVID in people with 3 or more vaccine doses. We summarised several sources of possible bias for researchers using EHRs to study long COVID. Funding This research was supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) (OpenPROMPT: COV-LT2-0073))

COVID-19 collateral: Indirect acute effects of the pandemic on physical and mental health in the UK (preprint)

Background: Concerns have been raised that the response to the UK COVID-19 pandemic may have worsened physical and mental health, and reduced use of health services. However, the scale of the problem is unquantified, impeding development of effective mitigations. We asked what has happened to general practice contacts for acute physical and mental health outcomes during the pandemic? Methods: Using electronic health records from the Clinical Research Practice Datalink (CPRD) Aurum (2017-2020), we calculated weekly primary care contacts for selected acute physical and mental health conditions (including: anxiety, depression, acute alcohol-related events, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] exacerbations, cardiovascular and diabetic emergencies). We used interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to formally quantify changes in conditions after the introduction of population-wide restrictions ('lockdown') compared to the period prior to their introduction in March 2020. Findings: The overall population included 9,863,903 individuals on 1st January 2017. Primary care contacts for all conditions dropped dramatically after introduction of population-wide restrictions. By July 2020, except for unstable angina and acute alcohol-related events, contacts for all conditions had not recovered to pre-lockdown levels. The largest reductions were for contacts for: diabetic emergencies (OR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.25-0.50), depression (OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.52-0.53), and self-harm (OR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.54-0.58). Interpretation: There were substantial reductions in primary care contacts for acute physical and mental conditions with restrictions, with limited recovery by July 2020. It is likely that much of the deficit in care represents unmet need, with implications for subsequent morbidity and premature mortality. The conditions we studied are sufficiently severe that any unmet need will have substantial ramifications for the people experiencing the conditions and healthcare provision. Maintaining access must be a key priority in future public health planning (including further restrictions). Funding: Wellcome Trust Senior Fellowship (SML), Health Data Research UK.